Summary: the overall supply and demand situation
A.Te world supply and demand analysis of rapese
The table of USDA’S report since 7 years
According to forecasts, the overall yield of the 2013/14 annual World rapeseed will grow significantly from 63.017 million tons increased to 69.969 million tons, an increase of 11%. Demand, along with the gradual recovery of the world economy, consumption also appeared to grow steadily, increased from 65,348,000 tons to 67,276,000 tons in the previous year, the growth rate is about 3 percent, far behind the growth rate of production. The resulting world ending stocks of rapeseed has resumed growth, from 340 million last year, recovered to 5.4 million tons in the new year, which means that the world's overall supply and demand situation will be tight rapeseed into balance.
Figure 1: the world of rapeseed production and stocks
B Canadian rapeseed export situation
Canada,this year achieved a record high yield, which reversed the pattern of world supply and demand of rapeseed played an important role. USDA projected 2013/14 Canadian canola exports will reach 8.3 million tons, a significant increase of 17% over last year. Statistics Canada released the latest data show that in October the Canadian grain exports grew by 50%, which was mainly due to unusually strong push to China's rapeseed exports. October Canadian canola exports to China soared by 62%.
Figure 2: The supply of Canadian canola, crush and exports
In Canada, exports remain strong, while domestic demand is relatively weak performance. Latest weekly crush Canadian Oilseed Processors Association (COPA) released data show that, as of December 11, the week, the Canadian canola crushing capacity of 139,865 tons, compared with 148,122 tons a decrease of 5.6% the previous week, press needs to shrink further. 2013/14 year to date, the total amount of 2.398 million tons of rapeseed crushing, compared to 2.615 million tons last year. When the week rapeseed crushing capacity utilization was 80%, 78.1% YTD, compared to 88.6% last year. Whether from the current amount of press and progress, or from in terms of capacity utilization, the Canadian press demands were weaker than a year ago.